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Archives for : Analize

First lessons at EU level, after the incident in Baumgarten

Seen as the safest, most performing, efficient, flexible and environmentally friendly gas facility in Europe, Baumgarten, a reference in the European gas industry, was the scene of an incident that caused the biggest emotion in the gas market in the history of natural gas. An emotion that has resulted in an instantaneous increase in gas prices in some SPOT markets, but also an immediate reaction of Italy by declaring, too easily, the state of emergency etc.

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Surprise! After electricity, gas could also reach a historic price this winter

Never say never. I said just a while ago that this winter gas prices for end-consumers wouldn’t grow by more than 15% compared to the average price in the warm season. The statement was based on the price established through the transactions concluded on the exchange during summer with delivery in winter and which showed an increase by around 7% in the price of gas from domestic production, added to which was the storage cost and the import cost for days with peak consumption. Surprise! As a year ago electricity prices have gone crazy, now gas prices also show signs that they follow the steps of electricity prices in the previous year.

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Gas market does not necessarily need several gas exchanges, but it certainly needs competition, transparency and non-discrimination

A year has passed since ANRE had to issue a series of Implementing Rules for Law 123, amended by GEO 64/2016, proposing certain principles underlying the future regulations. Unfortunately, these proposed principles were limited only to the centralized market, which is only a small part of the gas market, without including the principles necessary for the functioning of the gas market as a whole.

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The GEO 64 saga or how chaos surged in the gas market

GEO 64, amending the gas law, although it has received the endorsements from all the Senate and Chamber of Deputies committees in the form approved by the Government, hasn’t been validated in Parliament, as a result of the position of the Committee for Industries and Services of the Chamber of Deputies, on the need to include amendments to the gas law in GEO 64, diluting the provisions of transparency, competition and non-discrimination, i.e. those that would ensure the functioning of the market.

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Gas supplies to certain consumers will be interrupted! Complicity or incompetence?

An unbelievable threat came several days ago from the committee of investigation into the gas market, in which the representative of the largest gas supplier in Romania showed that the only solution next winter was to stop gas supplies to certain consumers. Surprisingly, there was no reaction to this statement. Nobody showed that such a practice would be illegal. Why? Maybe because the truth is always in the middle: 50% complicity / 50% incompetence.

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One or two gas exchanges? This is not the question

A scandal on the gas market regarding the legislative initiative that seeks to impose a single gas exchange on the gas market. The idea is not bad in essence, even if the issue of serious failures on this market is not due to exchanges and it should have been started with the mechanisms of market functioning and not with the (trading) instruments. In absence of mechanisms of market functioning, with one or two exchanges, we will continue to have slippages on the gas market.

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Crisis, price and gas

The years of media “silence” on natural gas have been replaced with media “unrest” in the recent weeks. Analyzes were replaced by investigations. Expertise was replaced by gossips. The gas issue has become a daily subject, reason of quarrel between nationalists, journalists etc., who issue points of view on energy independence, gas crisis, failure to store gas, how many gas exchanges exist in Romania, the increase in gas prices etc. I propose an analysis of the circulated elements, to be able to identify the fake news, the persuasion and the real beneficiaries of this artificially created situation, as the consumers will definitely lose from it.

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Why GEO 64 does not apply, even if it has been in force for over 6 months?

Government Emergency Ordinance 64/2016, amending and supplementing Law 123/2012, came into force on 1 April 2017, determining the transformation of principles of transparency, competition, non-discrimination on the gas market into concepts, which can be applied, measured and verified, based on procedures, instructions and specific methodologies.

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Romania – a Gas HUB. It is a project for Romanians?

A national project insistently resumed lately is the development of a Gas HUB in Romania. Analyzing the possibility of materialization of this project, we consider that the opportunity was lost a few years ago, and the prospects for implementing a HUB in Romania are reduced. Then, who would benefit from such a project? Corroborating this project with other internal and external trends, we can say that it is a project that could be used to impose a monopoly in the South-East region.

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Hungary’s “perfect” game on the gas market

The construction of single line national transmission systems is no longer an option to develop national transmission systems of a highly dynamic XXI century, with continuous positioning and repositioning of political, strategic or economic nature. The construction of stellar systems with multiple entry and exit points in different directions is the solution of these times, as it creates the possibility of a rapid response to volatility markets.
Analyzing the philosophy behind transmission systems over the last 20 years, we see that stellar systems with multiple interconnections, as well as flexibility to the rapid and massive changes of any gas transmission flows, were the preferred ones. Along with Germany, Austria or Slovakia, Hungary has also resorted to this technique.
Hungary has chosen to play its national interest very well, even risking some sanctions for its withdrawal from some international agreements. It chose to get out of Nabucco project first, when it realized that this move was winning; it also chose to allow Nabucco to alienate all the know-how of the project, and chose to get out of BRUA project when it realized it had the chance to gain more from leaving this project than staying in it.
We will follow two maps containing projects for the development of the gas transmission system in Hungary, according to MEKH-ANRE HU, before and after the announcement of Hungary’s withdrawal from BRUA (1 August 2017).

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